Canada-Man
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- Apr 16, 2015
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Ontario Premier Doug Ford has cast himself as the province’s COVID-19 frightener-in-chief. That’s not useful, not well-supported by the facts, and it undermines everything his government has been trying to do.
On Monday, Ford said the 700 new cases announced that day were “deeply disturbing,” and that the province was now in a second wave that “will be more complicated, more complex. It will be worse than the first wave we faced earlier this year.” Then he topped that by saying the wave could turn into a “tsunami” if people didn’t follow proper COVID safety procedures.
Ford offered nothing to back up his dire predictions, but the thought was that Wednesday’s release of the province’s latest COVID modelling projection would do that for him. It did not. Instead, the presentation by provincial health experts was a balanced and detailed analysis of a potential problem.
The daily case count is always the number that makes headlines in this pandemic. It means a lot less than one might think. Daily numbers that are about as high as last spring’s peak suggest that we’re right back where we started, but we’re not. Testing volume now is four times as great as it was back then. More tests equal more cases. More important is the percentage of tests that yield a positive result. In the spring it was 7.5 per cent. Now, it’s 1.5 per cent. If Ontario had the testing capacity in the spring that it has now, the first wave’s numbers would easily have dwarfed those we are seeing this week.
nationalpost.com
On Monday, Ford said the 700 new cases announced that day were “deeply disturbing,” and that the province was now in a second wave that “will be more complicated, more complex. It will be worse than the first wave we faced earlier this year.” Then he topped that by saying the wave could turn into a “tsunami” if people didn’t follow proper COVID safety procedures.
Ford offered nothing to back up his dire predictions, but the thought was that Wednesday’s release of the province’s latest COVID modelling projection would do that for him. It did not. Instead, the presentation by provincial health experts was a balanced and detailed analysis of a potential problem.
The daily case count is always the number that makes headlines in this pandemic. It means a lot less than one might think. Daily numbers that are about as high as last spring’s peak suggest that we’re right back where we started, but we’re not. Testing volume now is four times as great as it was back then. More tests equal more cases. More important is the percentage of tests that yield a positive result. In the spring it was 7.5 per cent. Now, it’s 1.5 per cent. If Ontario had the testing capacity in the spring that it has now, the first wave’s numbers would easily have dwarfed those we are seeing this week.
Randall Denley: Ontario's new COVID models show everyone should stop panicking — especially Doug Ford
The biggest fear in the next few months ought to be an overreaction that further restricts personal freedoms and economic activity without the facts to justify it
nationalpost.com
