Recession 2015 is here. Will oil prices ever reach $100 PB again?.

[Wanker]

Harold hopes so.

Billionaire wildcatter Harold Hamm, a founding father of the U.S. shale boom whose personal fortune has fallen by more than half in the past three months, said U.S. drilling will slow as producers cut back amid falling oil prices.

Declining activity from Texas to North Dakota won’t be as harmful to the industry as some have feared, the chairman and chief executive officer of Continental Resources Inc. said. OPEC’s refusal to curb output last week bodes well for U.S. producers that can outlast countries in the cartel, which depend on higher oil prices.

“Will this industry slow down? Certainly,” Hamm said Monday in a telephone interview. “Nobody’s going to go out there and drill areas, exploration areas and other areas, at a loss. They’ll pull back and won’t drill it until the price recovers. That’s the way it ought to be.”

Investors have been spooked as oil has declined to a five- year low. The downturn comes after prices above $100 a barrel sparked a boom in output from U.S. shale formations that helped create a glut of supply.

Hamm’s wealth, which is largely tied to the fate of Oklahoma City-based Continental, has fallen by more than $12 billion in three months, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Bouncing Back
Hamm, who helped discover the potential of North Dakota’s Bakken formation, predicted a swift recovery in oil prices, which have declined more than 36 per cent since June as Saudi Arabia and its allies in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries refused to cut production last week to help re-balance the market.

https://business.financialpost.com/...s-urges-traders-to-stay-calm/?__lsa=5fb5-ab02

 

[Boing]

The Russian currency has lost 30% of its value and guess who they are blaming?.

Harper's economic plan hit a big hurtle. Alberta's oil sands were the key to Canada's economic future and may not happen at all and guess who they are blaming?.

China's energy reliant economy is slowing down and guess who they are blaming?.

The cartel cannot enforce high prices as they were one used to and guess who they are blaming?.

The USA is over producing which is bad for the bottom line and guess who they are blaming?.

Venezuela, well they are fucked.






To show you all the present leaders cannot lead if a recession were to occur again.

 

[DannyDeVito]

To show you all the present leaders cannot lead if a recession were to occur again.

Thanks Einstein ancing:

 

[InfidelHarper]

Harper's economic plan hit a big hurtle. Alberta's oil sands were the key to Canada's economic future and may not happen at all and guess who they are blaming?.

;Notlistening:/

 

[FUKUMAN]

Should be back in the high $90's before the first long weekend of the summer.

 

[Greeter]

[h=2]Oil prices keep plummeting as OPEC starts a price war with the US[/h]
A very good article.

https://www.vox.com/2014/11/28/7302827/oil-prices-opec

 

[Johnnybehorny]

Good for all of us....high fuel prices have driven up the prices of everything!

Yes, have you checked the super expensive price of vegetables recently?. Strawberries are three times the price.

 

[User-E]

Here's a video about the high price of groceries in Nunavut.

The government subsidizes their food costs with the Nutrition North program, but groceries still cost 10 times what the rest of the country pays. It's been in the news recently (https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/12/02/leona-aglukkaq-newspaper_n_6252228.html )

An Nunavut elder is shown walking through a dump, searching for food to resell. One resident told the network her weekly grocery bill for two costs nearly $400.

 

[Robintheboywonder]

All good but the prices at the pumps are not reflecting the drop of the barrel. Gas should be about $1.00 a litre not 1.12!:grrrrrr:

 

[papasmerf]

The price of gasoline seems to rise as quickly as crude, but it never seems to come down as fast. Funny, huh?

yes is strange

No one will ever figure that one out

 

[anon1]

Gas at under a dollar in Hamilton.
99.9 cents @ Costco
https://www.hamiltongasprices.com/GasPriceSearch.aspx

 

[NatashaSummers]

Currently at 107 in Toronto. This is so attractive to me I might even go on a road trip.

 

[blackram]

Good for all of us....high fuel prices have driven up the prices of everything!

How much you wanna bet that those prices aren't going to fall as fast as the oil prices are? :grrrrrr:

 

[blackram]

Currently 95.4¢ in Ottawa (Costco), averaging 97.5¢. Enjoy it while it lasts, I doubt it'll last the year (less than a month left).

 

[Wanker]

This oil crash could be the worst in more than 45 years, Morgan Stanley warns

Morgan Stanley has been pretty pessimistic about oil prices in 2015, drawing comparisons to the some of the worst oil slumps of the past three decades. The current downturn could even rival the iconic price crash of 1986, analysts had warned — but definitely no worse.

This week, a revision: It could be much worse.

From Morgan Stanley:
“We have been expecting the current downturn to be as severe as the one in 1986 – the worst for at least 45 years – but not worse than that. Still, if oil prices follow the path suggested by the forward curve, our thesis may yet prove too optimistic.”

Until recently, confidence in a strong recovery for oil prices—and oil companies — had been pretty high, wrote analysts including Martijn Rats and Haythem Rashed, in a report to investors Wednesday. That confidence was based on four premises, they said, and only three have proven true.

1. Demand will rise: Check

In theory: The crash in prices that started a year ago should stimulate demand. Cheap oil means cheaper manufacturing, cheaper shipping, more summer road trips.
In practice: Despite a softening Chinese economy, global demand has indeed surged by about 1.6 million barrels a day over last year’s average, according to the report.
Related

• Oil guru who called 2014 slump says $100 crude will return by 2020
• Oil price war hitting Canada hard, but just how hard remains to be seen
• Is there a huge investing opportunity in the oil markets?

2. Spending on new oil will fall: Check

In theory: Lower oil prices should force energy companies to cut spending on new oil supplies, and the cost of drilling and pumping should decline.
In practice: Sure enough, since October the number of rigs actively drilling for new oil around the world has declined by about 42 per cent.

More than 70,000 oil workers have lost their jobs globally, and in 2015 alone listed oil companies have cut about $129 billion in capital expenditures.

3. Stock prices remain low: Check

In theory: While oil markets rebalance themselves, stock prices of oil companies should remain cheap, setting the stage for a strong rebound.
In practice: Yep. The oil majors are trading near 35-year lows, using two different methods of valuation.

4. Oil supply will Drop: Uh-oh

In theory: With strong demand for oil and less money for drilling and exploration, the global oil glut should diminish. Let the recovery commence.
In practice: The opposite has happened. While U.S. production has leveled off since June, OPEC has taken up the role of market spoiler.

OPEC Production Surges in 2015

Bloomberg
​

​

For now, Morgan Stanley is sticking with its original thesis that prices will improve, largely because OPEC doesn’t have much more spare capacity to fill and because oil stocks have already been hammered.

But another possibility is that the supply of new oil coming from outside the U.S. may continue to increase as sanctions against Iran dissolve and if the situation in Libya improves, the Morgan Stanley analysts said. U.S. production could also rise again. A recovery is less certain than it once was, and the slump could last for three years or more—”far worse than in 1986.”

“In that case,” they wrote, “there would be little in analyzable history that could be a guide” for what’s to come.

https://business.financialpost.com/...st-in-more-than-45-years-morgan-stanley-warns

 

[Oilcan]

[h=1]Oil nears longest losing streak since 1986 as markets fall in worst bloodbath of the year[/h]
LONDON — World stock markets tumbled towards their worst week of the year on Friday and commodities got another kicking, as more alarming data from China sent investors scurrying to the safety of bonds and gold.

The data from China showed its giant manufacturing sector slowing at the fastest pace since the depths of the financial crisis in 2009, confirming the worries about its health that have preying on economist’s minds for months.
Emerging market assets took another hammering and oil prices were on track for their longest losing streak since 1986, as fears of a China-led deceleration in global growth gripped sentiment.

The market is stuck in a relentless downtrend. The trend is down — stick with it

more: https://business.financialpost.com/...years-as-markets-tumble-in-worst-week-of-year
​

 

[Al Bumin]

[h=1]TSX drops 750 points on Chinese instability[/h][h=2]The massive rout was triggered with the devaluation of China’s currency and concerns that the Chinese were either unwilling or unable to stem the plunge.[/h]
https://www.thestar.com/business/2015/08/24/tsx-drops-750-points-on-chinese-instability.html

 

[Macho Man]

The Chinese are now cooking their own people.(figure of speech).

2008 all over again. Get ready for a bigger recession.

 

[Rolex]

[h=1]Economy drops into center stage of 2016 campaign trail[/h]
https://www.cnn.com/2015/08/24/poli...conomy-donald-trump-market-turmoil/index.html

 

[cristycurves]

Perhaps they should have never hit 100+ a barrel to begin with.I don't think it's normal to set standards by abnormal records. Most are predicting a come back within the year, others are saying it'l be 2020 before they hit that price again. Either way there will be those that do well because of this and others who'll loose their shirts. I just wish renewable and clean energy would win. Instead our demand and use of carbon-related energy will always be:Crying2: until it's completely gone then you'll hear people saying why didn't we.......