Should you switch when offered the option?

[BIG_BRO]

There are 3 doors. Behind one of them is a new car.

You can pick one door.

You randomly choose door # 1. The quiz-master then opens door # 3 to show you the car is not behind door # 3.

He then asks if you want to keep door # 1 or switch to door # 2.

Always switch to the other door because your chances will go from 1 to 3 to 2 in 3 to win.




True?.

 

[papasmerf]

who cares?

 

[Shiek]

The Monty Hall problem...

The way I look at it, your chances are 50/50 when the third door has been opened.

 

[SillyGirl]

There are 3 doors. Behind one of them is a new car.

You can pick one door.

You randomly choose door # 1. The quiz-master then opens door # 3 to show you the car is not behind door # 3.

He then asks if you want to keep door # 1 or switch to door # 2.

Always switch to the other door because your chances will go from 1 to 3 to 2 in 3 to win.




True?.

No. Once Door #3 has been eliminated, your chance of winning becomes 1 of 2. Changing your pick to Door #2 wouldn't affect the odds.

 

[SillyGirl]

I mean, um, what Sheik said. :biggrin2:

 

[Shiek]

Well actually when I think about it, switching gives you a 2/3 chance of winning as opposed to 50/50

 

[Wilsonjso]

1 to 3 = 33% chances to win;

after open one door

1 to 2 = 50% chances to win;

and not 66% as you imply in 2 in 3

So it's false.

 

[Shiek]

[TABLE="class: wikitable"]
[TR]
[TH]behind door 1[/TH]
[TH]behind door 2[/TH]
[TH]behind door 3[/TH]
[TH]result if staying at door #1[/TH]
[TH]result if switching to the door offered[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Car[/TD]
[TD]Goat[/TD]
[TD]Goat[/TD]
[TD]Car[/TD]
[TD]Goat[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Goat[/TD]
[TD]Car[/TD]
[TD]Goat[/TD]
[TD]Goat[/TD]
[TD]Car[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Goat[/TD]
[TD]Goat[/TD]
[TD]Car[/TD]
[TD]Goat[/TD]
[TD]Car[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


2/3

 

[NoName]

Bob barker is that you?.

 

[HOF]

1 to 3 = 33% chances to win;

after open one door

1 to 2 = 50% chances to win;

and not 66% as you imply in 2 in 3

So it's false.

:good:

Keep the car, I have a good one.

Door 1: Sinful Sophia Door 2: CameronX Door 3: Kasey (Vixens)

Regardless of the door I choose, blonde, brunette or redhead, I WIN and they'd probably went to play together, so I WIN again and again!

 

[JBelushi]

Bob barker is that you?.

Have fun.

 

[Dave - WebGuy]

It becomes 1/2 instead of 1/3 because there are fewer options.

Being offered the chance to change may mean that you hit the nail on the head, a chance to move you from the winning choice.